Thunder-Pelicans preview: How New Orleans can decelerate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC

The Western Convention’s No. 1 seed, the Oklahoma Town Thunder (57-25) will take at the eighth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans (49-33), who complicated throughout the play-in match, within the first spherical of the 2024 NBA playoffs. The 2 franchises have by no means met in a playoff collection; they did, on the other hand, sq. off within the 2023 play-in match, with Oklahoma Town finishing the Pelicans’ season.

When you’d forgotten about that … neatly, Brandon Ingram hasn’t:

Extra collection previews:
Celtics-Warmth | Knicks-76ers | Dollars-Pacers | Cavs-Magic 
Thunder-Pelicans | Nuggets-Lakers | Wolves-Suns | Clippers-Mavs

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How the Thunder were given right here

Via filling the only hollow of their boat, after which floating to the highest of the West.

Gazing closing yr’s Thunder make the play-in match, I couldn’t assist however take into accounts what was once lacking.

Sure, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams commanded maximum of my consideration — center of attention rewarded this season as SGA ascended to the ranks of the best avid gamers on the planet whilst Williams fixed his personal push for stardom. However every time I noticed a Thunderer pressure right into a congested lane, or an opponent convert over an undersized rim protector, I might marvel how OKC would glance when many of the 2,500-or-so heart mins going to Jaylin Williams, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Aleksej Pokuševski, Mike Muscala and Darius Bazley as an alternative went to Chet Holmgren.

The solution, it seems: implausible.

After sitting on ice for a yr, 2022’s No. 2 select debuted and regarded no longer similar to a veteran, however like an All-Famous person. Holmgren temporarily proved to be the very best lacking piece on each ends: an effective stretch-5 who may just pull opposing bigs out of the paint, growing wider using lanes for OKC’s slashers; a reputable risk to place the ball at the deck and create his personal shot off the dribble; and an impressive rim protector emboldening Luguentz Dort and Co. to clamp down even tighter. The outcome: the NBA’s No. 3 offense and No. 4 protection, and the West’s ideal document.

With Holmgren at heart, Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Josh Giddey starting up, an artistic bench boss in Trainer of the Yr favourite Mark Daigneault, and a number of high-level function avid gamers, the one factor Oklahoma Town’s lacking now could be revel in. Time to start out filling that hollow, too.

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How the Pelicans were given right here

Via creating perhaps the inner most staff within the NBA and in spite of everything getting the massive fella wholesome … proper up till he wasn’t.

Possibly probably the most outstanding factor about this Pelicans season? We were given compelling proof that the previously-little-seen Giant 3 of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum doesn’t in reality click on; New Orleans was once outscored through 25 features in 737 mins with them at the surface, scoring and protecting at bottom-10 ranges.

They usually have been excellent anyway.

New Orleans sloughed off a 12-11 get started marked through early-season accidents and an embarrassing blowout loss to the Lakers within the in-season match, bouncing again to grow to be some of the NBA’s most powerful groups. The Pelicans boasted a top-tier protection led through all-world perimeter stopper Herbert Jones (who now knocks down like 42% of his 3-pointers!), a gradual movement of contributions from a moment unit that includes Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr., Naji Marshall and Dyson Daniels, and robust particular person manufacturing from their stars — maximum particularly Williamson.

Zion stayed wholesome sufficient to play 70 video games for the primary time in his profession. He dropped weight, defended higher, and regarded each extra explosive and extra dominant because the season wore on. After a disappointing regular-season finale that noticed him rating simply 12 features on 13 pictures in a loss to the Lakers that dropped New Orleans again into the play-in match, Williamson got here out intent on making excellent in Tuesday’s rematch between the 2 groups. The outcome was once breathtaking … proper up till it became heartbreaking:

What will have to had been a crowning second — 40 features on 17-for-27 capturing, relentless attacking of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and any person else in entrance of him, redemption for the duds within the IST semifinal and season finale — become any other sadness: an incapacity to go the end line, any other loss to the Lakers, and an damage that value him no longer handiest Friday’s 8-vs.-9 sport towards the Kings, however most likely a minimum of 1/2 of the primary spherical, after New Orleans complicated through beating Sacramento.

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Head-to-head

The Thunder gained the season collection, 2-1, with the Pelicans mustering simply 103.4 features in line with 100 possessions towards Oklahoma Town’s elite protection; in step with Cleansing the Glass, handiest the lottery-bound Grizzlies, Spurs and Path Blazers scored much less regularly and successfully towards OKC than New Orleans did.

The Pelicans’ lone win got here again in November, with Ingram, Alvarado, Marshall and Trey Murphy III all sidelined. Regardless of all the ones absences, the Pelicans erased a 22-point first-half deficit thank you in large part to dominating the ownership sport — forcing 14 turnovers that ended in 23 features, and hauling in a season-high 22 offensive rebounds that produced 14 extra box purpose makes an attempt and ended in 27 second-chance features:

(The Thunder additionally shot simply 7-for-34 from 3-point vary within the loss — the third-worst long-distance time out of the season for the NBA’s maximum correct staff.)

In Oklahoma Town’s first win — which Zion ignored with a bone bruise in his left foot — the Thunder held New Orleans to simply 83 features on 39% capturing in what would finish up being the Pelicans’ worst offensive efficiency of the season. In the second one, they gained a firefight, weathering a 29-point, 10-assist evening from Zion through going 26-for-35 (74.3%) within the paint and 15-for-34 (44.1%) from past the arc, and ripping off a 12-0 run within the ultimate 3:10 to eke out the victory:

All informed, the Pelicans scored 108.5 features in line with 100 possessions towards OKC’s protection in 71 mins with Williamson at the surface … and a microscopic 91.4 points-per-100 in 73 mins with out him. For on the other hand lengthy Zion’s hamstring helps to keep him at the shelf, head trainer Willie Inexperienced’s going to have to seek out lineups that may rating sufficient with out him to hold with Oklahoma Town. If he can’t, the Pelicans may no longer linger lengthy sufficient to present Zion a possibility to make a heroic late-series comeback.

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Matchup to look at

SGA vs. Herb

In truth, relating to total affect at the rating of the sport, this will not be probably the most vital matchup within the collection. That may well be Holmgren and Jonas Valančiūnas, since “stretch stringbean vs. low-block bruiser” is usually a stylistic pivot level for the run of play. It may be Jalen Williams vs. … whoever’s guarding Jalen Williams, since that was once most commonly Zion right through the steady season, and coping with OKC’s moment possibility would constitute a frightening bodily problem for the likes of McCollum, Murphy or Ingram.

However while you get a possibility to peer First-Group All-NBA vs. First-Group All-Protection — on my poll, anyway — for a complete collection? Guy, that’s the excellent stuff:

Gilgeous-Alexander shot 5-for-14 towards Jones this season, in step with the NBA’s matchup knowledge, with 3 assists, one turnover and only one capturing foul drawn. I don’t suspect Herb will stay the MVP candidate beneath wraps for the whole collection; if he can gradual him down sufficient to stay OKC from attaining get away speed, regardless that, it will do wonders for the Pelicans’ possibilities of sticking round within the collection and discovering a trail to the disillusioned.

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Last lineups

Oklahoma Town Thunder
The Thunder have two of the NBA’s 20 most-used fourth-quarter lineups. Either one of them characteristic the quartet of Gilgeous-Alexander, J-Dub, Holmgren and Dort.

One is the usual beginning lineup, with the 6-foot-8 Giddey — whose measurement and passing imaginative and prescient assist bolster OKC’s rim force and internal playmaking, particularly on inbounds performs — within the 5th spot. That staff has outscored combatants through 9 features in line with 100 possessions total, and has carried out neatly overdue, too — plus-36 in 68 fourth-quarter mins.

The opposite is a variant that Daigneault will dial up if an opponent tries to muck up Oklahoma Town’s offense through stashing a large guy on Giddey — who tried simply 3 3-pointers in 25.1 mins in line with sport this season, and rarely made a 3rd of them. This model replaces Giddey with Isaiah Joe, who’s a shooter-shooter — 4.5 triple tries in simply 18.5 mins in line with sport, drilling 41.6% of them — and has blitzed combatants through 40 features in 56 fourth-quarter mins. Joe’s presence as a ghost-screen-and-flare-out risk has supercharged OKC’s offense to the song of a league-best-caliber 127.7 points-per-100.

Different avid gamers may get within the combine: Gordon Hayward or Aaron Wiggins to separate the variation between Giddey’s measurement and Joe’s capturing; Cason Wallace for any other point-of-attack stopper; Jaylin Williams for any other large frame, and so forth. Most commonly, regardless that, be expecting the Thunder to proceed rolling with the way and body of workers that experience made them so laborious to deal with.

New Orleans Pelicans
The Pels’ two maximum regularly used fourth-quarter lineups each characteristic Williamson. Additionally they characteristic Nance, a sign of the way a lot Inexperienced trusts and values the 6-foot-8 combo large’s defensive versatility and connective passing in late-game scenarios.

As treasured as Nance may also be, regardless that, a steadier vitamin of Valančiūnas may well be so as on this matchup. New Orleans has grabbed a couple of league-average proportion of its personal misses within the mins that Valančiūnas has performed with out Williamson this season; the ones additional alternatives may well be lifelines if pictures aren’t falling. Maximizing the energy benefit that the 265-pound Valančiūnas could have over the 195-pound Holmgren at the internal may just pay dividends, too — perhaps sufficient to make up for no matter you’d be giving up through asking JV to protect a floor-spacer like Chet at the different finish.

Whichever large slots within the center, I’d be expecting to peer heavy doses of the fringe quartet of Ingram, McCollum, Jones and Murphy, with the ball essentially in Ingram’s arms — and, most likely, extra completing alternatives for Murphy, who averaged 14.8 features in line with sport and shot 60% throughout the arc along with bombing clear of past it. That foursome has blitzed combatants through 19.6 points-per-100 this season, in step with Cleansing the Glass, faring neatly whether or not it’s Valančiūnas or Nance at the again line.

Something value noting: When Ingram didn’t have it towards the Lakers on Wednesday, Inexperienced went clear of him down the stretch — even after Williamson strained his hamstring — in choose of sticking with Alvarado, whose two-way play, court docket imaginative and prescient and total juice were instrumental in New Orleans’ comeback effort. Ingram replied superbly on Friday, with 24 features, six rebounds, six assists and a few engaged protection to steer the price towards the Kings. However now that Inexperienced has proven a willingness to appear in different places if he thinks it offers New Orleans the most efficient likelihood of successful, it wouldn’t be too stunning to peer him do it once more.

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Prediction

Thunder in six. The entire intensity of skill on New Orleans’ roster manner the Pelicans can stay aggressive, even towards an elite opponent and with out considered one of their peak weapons. Even so: I feel the Pels’ ideal likelihood of pulling the disillusioned was once Zion simply Hulk-smashing Chet and OKC’s smaller assist defenders to smithereens to the song of like 38 features in line with sport for 2 weeks. Possibly he comes again, and he’s ready to present Inexperienced one thing. I feel that individual send has sailed, regardless that — and that’s sufficient for me to select OKC to sail on.

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Collection time table (all instances Jap)

Recreation 1: Solar., April 21 @ Oklahoma Town (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Recreation 2: Wed., April 24 @ Oklahoma Town (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Recreation 3: Sat. April 27 @ New Orleans (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Recreation 4: Mon. April 29 @ New Orleans (TBD)
Recreation 5: Wed., Might 1 @ Oklahoma Town (TBD)*
Recreation 6: Fri. Might 3 @ New Orleans (TBD)*
Recreation 7: Solar., Might 5 @ Oklahoma Town (TBD)*
*if important