The Jap Convention’s top-seeded Boston Celtics (64-18) will face the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34) in the second one around of the 2024 NBA playoffs. That is the primary playoff assembly between the 2 franchises since 2018, when Cleveland beat Boston in a seven-game Jap Convention finals.
How the Celtics were given right here
Armed with the league’s maximum gifted height six — Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Vacation, Derrick White and Al Horford — the Celtics took a 23-6 file into Christmas, a 43-12 mark into the All-Famous person ruin and completed 64-18, homeowners of the NBA’s best possible regular-season file (by way of seven video games) and internet ranking (by way of 4.4 issues according to 100 possessions). Most effective Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls of 1995-96 and 1996-97 logged a better moderate margin of victory according to 100 possessions than this season’s Celtics (+11.7).
Their praise used to be a first-round sequence in opposition to the Miami Warmth, who beat Boston in Recreation 7 of remaining yr’s Jap Convention finals. The Warmth had been with out Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier for this sequence and sans Jaime Jaquez Jr. in Recreation 5. It used to be no contest, save for Recreation 2, when Miami required a franchise playoff file 23 3-pointers to thieve one. Boston gained the opposite 4 video games by way of a mixed margin of 78 issues.
Sadly, the Celtics misplaced Porziņģis to a proper soleus pressure in Recreation 4. He’s anticipated to leave out this whole second-round sequence. The 7-foot-3 Latvian’s skill to attract bigs to the 3-point line, punish smaller defenders within the paint and offer protection to the rim from each provides a layer of verticality to the Celtics that they are going to leave out in his absence. Horford, who began on Boston’s 2022 NBA Finals run, will resolution that decision once more.
Set with guards and bigs, the Cavaliers retooled on the wing, basically including Max Strus as a starter along Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. They shuffled Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro, Georges Niang, Marcus Morris and Sam Merrill into the wing rotation, too. And nonetheless the most important questions on Cleveland involved the redundancies of the ones star-caliber guards and bigs.
After successful 51 video games in 2022-23, handiest to lose a first-round sequence to the New York Knicks, the Cavaliers’ 18-15 begin to this season felt like extra of the similar. It’s arduous to construct round two non-shooting bigs or two small(ish) ball-dominant guards, let by myself each, however the sheer selection of skill is sufficient to win.
It used to be curious that Cleveland gained 17 of 18 video games and performed its best possible basketball over a midseason stretch, most commonly with out Garland and Mobley. As soon as the roster’s two emerging stars returned, the Cavs completed the steady season on a 13-18 skid — much more curious. It didn’t assist that Mitchell, an MVP candidate for the primary part of the season, ignored 27 video games to a sequence of accidents. Within the mixture, Cleveland’s high-priced beginning lineup yielded a internet ranking of +2.3 issues according to 100 possessions — just right however no longer nice.
The Cavaliers’ first-round sequence adopted a well-recognized script. They wiped the ground with Orlando within the first two video games, suffocating the Magic’s offense and successful by way of a complete of 34 issues. This used to be the whole thing we anticipated from so gifted a gaggle. Then, Orlando repaid the choose in Video games 3 and four, retaining Cleveland’s offense to fewer than 80 issues in a couple of blowouts. It used to be the whole thing we fearful about with the Cavs.
A rib harm price Allen Video games 5-7, however his co-stars answered. Mobley stored Recreation 5 with one among his 21 blocks within the sequence. Mitchell scored 89 issues within the ultimate two video games. His 50 in Recreation 6 weren’t sufficient, however his 39-9-5 determined Recreation 7. It all leaves us questioning which lineup is Cleveland’s best possible in Spherical 2.
Face to face
Boston gained the regular-season sequence in opposition to Cleveland, 2-1.
The Cavaliers had been with out Mobley within the first two conferences — back-to-back Celtics wins at TD Lawn — and Mitchell for the general showdown, a wild affair. Cleveland wanted 20 fourth-quarter issues from Dean Wade (now out for the season) to finish a 22-point comeback within the ultimate body of a 104-103 victory.
Once more: Dean Wade outscored all of the Celtics in his franchise’s greatest fourth-quarter comeback ever. That used to be the adaptation between a at ease season sweep for Boston and a narrower margin. That is what the Cavaliers can hope for — one thing to dissatisfied the standard order of items, to rattle those Celtics.
Cleveland’s anticipated beginning 5 didn’t play a unmarried minute in opposition to Boston this season. Likewise, the Celtics’ quintet of White, Vacation, Brown, Tatum and Horford performed all of 3 mins reverse the Cavaliers. The celebs had been the celebs for each groups, although, and Boston’s are higher and extra cohesive.
Matchup to look at
Donovan Mitchell vs. Jrue Vacation
Mitchell is an elite playoff scorer. His 27.9 issues according to sport within the postseason are fourth all time for a profession. In Cleveland, although, he has been wildly inconsistent. He has shot 45.3% from the sector and 27% from 3-point vary in 12 playoff video games for the Cavaliers. That degree of inefficiency is not going to beat Boston.
Mitchell may have his fingers complete in opposition to the Celtics. Boston basically defended Mitchell with Vacation, a five-time All-Defensive variety, and a few of Brown’s duration. Whilst Mitchell scored neatly in opposition to each all over the steady season — 27 issues on 11-for-17 capturing in 19 mins, according to the NBA’s monitoring knowledge — he didn’t carry Cleveland’s offense in different places. He dedicated 3 turnovers for his 5 assists reverse Vacation and Brown, and the Cavaliers scored handiest 101.6 issues according to 100 possessions in the ones mins.
That is how the Knicks dismantled the Cavs in remaining yr’s playoffs. They welcomed Mitchell’s shot — 23 according to sport in Cleveland’s 4 losses — and depended on that his penchant for “hero ball” would no longer lift the extent of everybody round him. In a similar way, Mitchell’s help (4.3)-to-turnover (3.8) ratio used to be a ways from productive in opposition to Orlando within the first around, particularly for any individual who’s the usage of a 3rd of his staff’s possessions.
It must fear Cleveland that Mitchell scored 60 issues on higher than 50% capturing in his two appearances in opposition to Boston this season, and the Cavs had been overwhelmed soundly each instances. He had 9 assists and 6 turnovers. Vacation will make Mitchell paintings for his issues on the expense of his teammates.
At the different finish, Vacation can not let Mitchell cover. Mitchell is a goal on protection and has been since his Utah days. Vacation may also be passive, however he must drive Mitchell into motion, serving as a playmaker and screener, which can be more practical if he connects on higher than 33% of his playoff 3s. A pick-and-pop handiest succeeds if the roll guy is a risk. Make Mitchell paintings on each ends, and Cleveland is in bother.
Greatest X issue
The rebound struggle
With out Porziņģis, who grabbed greater than 20% of to be had defensive rebounds in opposition to Cleveland this season, the Celtics’ measurement reverse the Cavaliers may transform an element. Horford is a superb rebounder, as are Tatum and Boston’s guards, however none of them are a 7-3 dude who can succeed in over Cleveland’s timber.
For all their measurement, the Cavaliers are a mean rebounding staff, particularly at the offensive finish, the place they grabbed 27.4% of to be had forums, which ranked twenty second within the league this season. Of their 3 video games, Boston out-rebounded Cleveland each and every time and by way of a complete of 142-116 (39-23 at the offensive glass). Whilst Mobley ignored two of the ones video games, Allen’s ribs stay a well being query for this sequence.
The Celtics are prone to win the 3-point struggle. They shot 38.8% on 42.5 3-point makes an attempt according to sport in opposition to Miami within the opening around. Cleveland shot 36.7% on 36.8 makes an attempt in opposition to Orlando. That discrepancy used to be more or less the similar all over the steady season. So, the Cavs have to search out further possessions someplace. What just right is having Allen and Mobley in the event that they can not out-rebound the Porziņģis-less Celtics?
Prediction
Celtics in 5
As just right as Cleveland’s protection used to be this season, Boston’s used to be higher, and the offensive potency margins lean too closely within the Celtics’ choose. Likewise, the Celtics have a plethora of choices to protect Mitchell, the catalyst of Cleveland’s offense. Conversely, does Strus get started on Tatum? Who guards Brown? Or White? Any one among them can raise Boston’s offense in opposition to a porous perimeter protection.
Collection odds
Boston Celtics (-1400)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+800)
Collection time table (all instances Jap)
Recreation 1: Tue., Might 7 @ Boston (7 p.m., TNT)
Recreation 2: Thu, Might 9 @ Boston (7 p.m., ESPN)
Recreation 3: Sat., Might 11 @ Cleveland (8:30 p.m., ABC)
Recreation 4: Mon., Might 13 @ Cleveland (7 p.m., TNT)
*Recreation 5: Wed., Might 15 @ Boston (TBD)
*Recreation 6: Fri., Might 17 @ Cleveland (TBD)
*Recreation 7: Solar., Might 19 @ Boston (TBD)
*if essential