UFC recently announced some big fights for their upcoming pay-per-view cards in July and August. But, before we get to this summer's fireworks, we have to work our way through some of the less exciting happenings at Apex. Saturday's card may look the weakest of them all, with a five-round main event headlined by Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill.
Dern (12-3, 7-3 UFC), now in his fifth year with the promotion, is one of the most dangerous BJJ practitioners on the roster. There aren't too many fighters in the division who can get away with rolling on the mat with the eighth-ranked Dern. However, as Krone Gracie showed us at UFC 288, the sport has evolved to the point where you need multiple disciplines to establish your greatest strengths. Dern is still in the process of transitioning from submission specialist to title contender. His inability to complement his game with effective striking or technically solid wrestling to secure takedowns has put his career at a crossroads. She has lost two of her last three encounters and is likely to drop out of the top 10 with a loss to 14th-ranked Hill.
Hill (15-12, 10-12 UFC) is a seasoned veteran who will put a tough test for Dern. She is coming off consecutive decision wins over Emily Ducote and Lupita Godinez. Hill is a Muay Thai striker who likes to throw volume, put pressure on the judges, and collect points. He will have to balance his aggression with caution against Dern, as a move out of position could lead to an inevitable sequence that ends in his tapping. If Hill's discipline and experience don't let her down, she could be well on her way to a third win in a row.
Strikers vs Grapplers is always a tough fight to bet on, as the winner always looks like he should have been priced -1000 when it ends. This really is a fight that could go either way, which makes Dern listed as the favorite at this size (-175) when considering possible outcomes. This implies a 63% chance that Dern comes out with a win, which is a huge number for a fighter who relies on submissions. There are some valuable betting options here that I like, and why the duration of the fight is such an important factor in the main event.
This is a very unique fight from a pricing perspective as both fighters have a very specific path to victory. Dern goes on to chase down her opponent, setting up the trap to start the grappling exchange in order to latch onto a submission.
Hill's victory condition is overwhelming in surviving round five, using his distance to keep Dern unbalanced, and far from his limbs. If Amanda Hill is standing after the final bell, it should be an easy decision victory for the eight-year veteran.
Two different outcomes are needed for each fighter's success, so I'd rather bet on the way to win than play on the moneyline. you can bet Angela Hill by Decision +200 at BetMGM. Hill does not have a history of finishing fights. Eighty percent of his wins in the UFC have come by decision, including his last four wins as of 2020. Add to this that she's up against a fighter whose grappling skills force her to limit her aggression, and winning inside distance becomes even more impossible. , If you like Hill, consider the decision proposition for 2-to-1 returns. My money would be on the other side.
I see Dern winning this fight, but it's also a poor bet at -175. Both can be true. If I were forced to bet the moneyline, I'd take a shot with Hill at +145 (41% vested) compared to -175 with Dern.
There has been some concern about Dern's endorsement from both inside and outside the Octagon. She has been very candid publicly about her recent challenges of working through a divorce, switching fight camps, and changing her management. It is fair to question whether these challenges affected his focus and preparation for this fight. It's a lot for a fighter looking to make serious improvements as a striker to round out his game amid the pressure of avoiding his third loss in four bouts. Given those factors I couldn't get comfortable playing Darn at -175.
My bet was Mackenzie Dern submitting at +150. By playing Dern's submission prop, I'm getting better returns on what I think is the most likely outcome. The two major factors that swayed me to this bet were the five round duration of the fight and the smaller octagon at Apex. Two of Dern's last three victories have come via decision, but they have been three-round fights. He is winless in his last two five-round bouts (both decision losses). Against a bigger fighter like Hill, Dern is not going to win a decision. She is about to be out-pointed during round five.
Dern only needed one takedown to end the fight. Her poor takedown accuracy has been a talking point all week, but Angela Hill has lost five of her last seven bouts. The smaller cage will help Dern reduce distance by restricting Hill's biggest advantage (her footwork) and give her less room to operate and use her range. More importantly, the extra two rounds also give Dern more time to sort out Hill's stand-up and find a way to drag her to the mat where she can end the fight. That's exactly what I'm seeing happening. Had this been a three-round fight, I might have been more inclined to bet on Hill stopping Dern's grappling, but the extra 10 minutes makes the chances very slim. The red flags about his camp are still significant, but I am more convinced that the +150 bet inherits that risk where the implied odds are 23% below the money line. Bet: Mackenzie Dern +150 Deposit