The Numbers Lie in Fantasy Baseball: Don’t Be Fooled by These 4 Stats

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Lodolo is going through a tough time after looking great to start the season, and his next start has been pushed back by a few days. a sore calf, Two of Lodolo's last four starts have come against offenses that rank top-three in WRC+ (Tampa Bay and Texas), and his BABIP (.435) is 50 percent of the next-highest starter's hitting rate this season. Points are higher.

If that's not enough, Lodolo's HR/FB rate (27.0%) is the highest in baseball by a wide margin (23.5% being second worst). He would continue to allow both at rates higher than league average while dealing with a weak Reds defense (Lodolo's career BABIP is .353) and pitching in either one. MLB's Best Hitter ParkBut regression is coming,

Lodolo's 6.29 ERA comes with a 3.79 xFIP, and he has so far Biggest Difference Between WOBA and Expected WOBA among all the beginnings. He also ranks top-10 in CSW, sandwiched among starters with an ERA of 2.53 (ERA).clayton kershaw) and 2.91 (zach aflin, Lodolo's 12.3 K/9 rate is higher than every other starter out there spencer stryder, Shohei Ohtani And Kevin Gossman,

Lodolo's screams buy little in the imagination.

Bieber's K percentages over the past four seasons are: 41.1, 33.1, 25.0, 18.8, respectively. His CSW has dropped equally in the last three seasons as well. He posted his best SwStr% game of the year during his last start, but that came against a Tigers offense that ranks bottom-five in wRC+ and K%.

Bieber has a career-low BABIP (.267) despite allowing a career-worst hardhit%. he's leaving contact too hard, including an average exit velocity in the bottom 3% of the league. Bieber's K-BB% among starters isn't top-50, so his ERA could go up like his current ERA (4.57) (and wins could be rare with Cleveland's offense ranking last in the WRC+).

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Jared Kelenick's .288 Batting Average Is A Lie

Kelenik is clearly a better player and will provide fantasy value with homers and steals, but it is safe to expect that his batting average will continue to drop. pitchers have adjusted to their throwing More breaking balls and fewer fastballs than late last monthand his K% spiked as a result, We're still working with small samples, and Kelenik will adjust for adjustments, but he's batting .204/.264/.286 with zero homers and 18 strikeouts over the span (49 AB). % of 34.0.

bat x Projects Kelenik to hit .236 the rest of the season.

Gray's ERA actually drops to 2.14 if you remove his first start of the season, and that includes the one outing at Coors Field. they've definitely improved but it's also Lots of luck benefited during this stretch, Gray is top-25 among starters in ERA this season, but ranks Bottom-25 in FIP (Wow, Michael Kopech, Only three starters have experienced a larger decrease in fastball velocity this season than Gray. Decreased by 2.2 mph compared to last year, he does not rank among the top 80 starters in CSW, and bat Projects 4.95 ERA with 1.36 WHIP rest-of-season. regression monster is coming.