(Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, known as one of Wall Street’s most bearish strategists, recommends that investors avoid any rebound in U.S. stocks as a result of regulators’ support measures following the collapse of the Silicon Valley bank. can sell.
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“We suggest selling any bounces on government intervention to ease the immediate liquidity crisis at SVB and other institutions until we see a fresh bear market at least,” Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. make.”
The strategist — who correctly predicted a selloff in stocks last year and a rally in October — said the collapse of SVB and the closure of Signature Bank illustrate the impact of the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening. While he does not see the same as the broader systemic issue faced during the global financial crisis of 2008, particularly the US authorities freezing deposits at troubled lenders, he sees the collapse of these banks as having a negative impact on economic growth. Let’s see in form.
The positive impact from US regulators’ overnight support actions quickly evaporated on Monday morning, with stocks indicating the fall from the event was far from over. S&P 500 futures erased most of their earlier gains and traded only 0.4% higher, as the underlying benchmark came close to erasing this year’s advance. The so-called VIX volatility index spiked, set for its highest since end-October.
First Republic Bank remained under pressure, with shares plunging 70% in US premarket trading even as the lender attempted to calm concerns about its liquidity following the SVB failure. PacWest Bancorp lost more than 40%, Western Alliance Bancorp was down 30%, Charles Schwab Corp was down about 20% and Zions Bancorp NA was down 15%. Comerica Inc slipped 7%.
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said he expects the trend by depositors to pull money out of traditional banks and into higher-yielding securities will continue unless lenders raise deposit rates. This in turn will lead to lower profits and is likely to reduce the credit supply, he said.
“Rather than a random or idiosyncratic shock, we view the events of the past week as just another contributing factor to our negative earnings growth outlook,” Wilson wrote. “In short, Fed policy has begun to bite, and is unlikely to reverse, even if the Fed halts its rate hikes or quantitative tightening — that is, to further earnings disappointment relative to consensus and company expectations.” Death is cast.”
They expect lower credit availability from banks to weigh more significantly on small-cap stocks.
-With assistance from Michael Misica and James Cone.
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