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Primer.
After a very impressive regular season, resulting in a 23–8 record and 12–6 in conference, Texas went out and sprinkled the gold by winning the Big XII Tournament, where they shut out Kansas 76–56 in the Big XII Tournament. . City. This Texas team had a high ceiling coming into the season, as well as some expectations; Most had Texas anywhere in the 12–15 range in their preseason polls.
Texas has done what Texas teams seemingly never do: overachieve. They narrowly missed out on the 1-seed, despite the upheaval in early December, but went on to have a super successful season, significantly lowering their preseason ranking.
Rodney Terry’s reign has been a successful one, despite what many thought after the very first game where he was serving as head coach, where the team narrowly lost to Rice in overtime. It was panic mode in the Longhorns basketball fantasy; But player?
Players never turn.
This is a legitimately great team with a lot of experience and maturity, a team full of people who have sacrificed their egos for the good of others. Rodney Terry’s leadership has been palpable throughout the season, as he’s built this team beyond what they ever thought possible. I don’t know that this team would have been in any better shape with Beard. It’s possible, sure, but Rodney Terry has been a brilliant motivator as well as a very smart Xs an Os guy.
This improbable season resulted in Texas receiving the 2-seed. Yes, I know. Everyone wanted a 1-seed, and Texas probably deserved to get one, but that’s no reason to cry about it. Don’t become a Kansas Jayhawks affiliate account for Barstool Sports (starting beef with them) and just whine all day long.
Let’s take a look at what Texas’ first few games could look like.
road. 64 Keys: (15) Colgate.
On Thursday, Texas takes on the 15-seed colgate in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Des Moines, Iowa. Colgate is a team from the Patriot League that played excellent basketball on both sides of the ball throughout the season. Colgate is no joke – they can legitimately blow the lights out. As a team, they are hitting 40.8%. Yes, as a team.
Colgate has four dudes hitting above 42.1% from beyond the arc. Oliver Lynch-Daniel shot 50.3% from three (4.9 attempts), while Ryan Moffat shot 45.6% on 4.3 attempts. They have Chandler Baker (43.4 on 2.2 attempts), Nicolas Louis-Jacques (42.1 on 1.2 per game), and Brayden Smith, who shoots 36.8% on 2.8.
It’s a little scary.
They averaged in the upper-70s in points per game at 76.5, and the engine of the offense is guard Tucker Richardson, the leading scorer (13.9 points/game) and leading assist (5.8 dimes/game). He’s also the kind of guy on this roster who isn’t a full-on sniper from deep. He used to average around 37% last season, up to 31.9% this year.
So even though his numbers aren’t great from deep, Texas still has to fight on screens instead of playing drop because he can get hot. Texas will have to rely on their perimeter defense in this one to make sure they are not upset in their first game as the 2-seed.
It has happened in the past as well, but I don’t think this team will let it happen to him.
road. Of 32: (7) Texas A&M / (10) Penn State
In the second round, Texas will take on the winner of Texas A&M and Penn State, a 7/10 matchup that should be really interesting, as both teams have been playing much better in the back half of the year.
Penn State, like Colgate, shoot all three very well, 12th in the nation at 38.7%. He ranks fifth in the nation in three-pointers per game (10.5) and 13th in three-point attempts at 27.1/game.
Penn State’s biggest offensive issue is that they are nearly dead last of 366 teams in free-throw attempts and makes per game. They don’t attack the basket a ton, 319th in the nation in two-point attempts per game at 30.1. For this reason, he also does not rebound particularly well, as he ranks 362nd in offensive rebounds per game.
Basically they hit you deep, but as they live by all three, they also die by all three. As in the Colgate game, should Penn State upset Texas A&M, Texas would have to rely on its perimeter defense to stop the onslaught of bombs from the Nittany Lions guard.
if texas takes on a rival Texas A&M In the Round of 32, he’ll have a different set of issues to worry about. A&M is a more physical team than Penn State, as they are a really good offensive rebounding team, where they rank 30th with 12.2/game. As we all know, this is Texas kryptonite. When they are out-rebounded, they usually lose.
The Aggies are also the best team in the country in getting to the FT line and hitting foul shots, where they lead the nation in both categories (19.2 makes and 25.3 FT attempts). This will require some finesse from Texas on the defensive end, as A&M is looking to get the bonus early. Big XII is such a brutal brand of basketball that teams from this conference probably have to stay away from some of the physicality that referees from other leagues might say, so it’s an advantage for A&M.
They both have scary problems to deal with, but Texas is better than A&M in so many areas – they shoot better from the outside, they take care of the ball better, they’re bigger than A&M, and their players have more of the tournament. Experience is comparable to A&M. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see A&M take the lead in the first half, I think Texas will eventually dominate them with better players.
This is the team of the Elite Eight.
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