On Saturday, 99% of bookmakers had him over Anthony Davis on a total of 24.5 points. Over hit.
You'd think bettors cashing in those tickets would go back to Davis' over. Instead, they are doing an old school WWE heel turn.
The steel chair for Davis' back is the second most popular prop bet under his 25.5 points for Monday at betmgm For Game 4 between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors.
Why are bookies favoring Davis after he cashes in an over? They are buying into a strange trend for Davis' scoring, which indicates he may be having a down game.
Anthony Davis has been inconsistent in the playoffs
Davis, when healthy, is one of the best players in the NBA. Like most superstars, Davis is a constant producer.
Then what to do with Davis' postseason? He has been very good in some games, and has scored less than 20 points in every other game. Here's his game-by-game scoring in the playoffs: 22, 13, 31, 12, 31, 16, 30, 11, 25.
It's hard to know what to make of it. Davis scored more than 13 points in 50 of 56 games in the regular season. He has 13 or fewer in three of his nine playoff games. It doesn't fit.
Either way, bettors know. He took the load on Davis over in Game 3 and received late cover.
And now, they're pushing for the underdog in Game 4.
Will Davis Have Another Down Game?
Zig-zag betting is a fairly simple principle used in playoff series that many people think is completely out of date. It's basically betting against whatever happened in the previous game. If one team wins a game in the series, bet on the other team to win and/or cover the next game. It is an approach that goes back many years.
Zig-zag betting on a player prop may be a new phenomenon.
It seems that Davis also has no explanation. He was stellar with 30 points and 23 rebounds in Game 1 against the Warriors. Then in Game 2, he scored just 11 points.
“I took all the shots I took in Game 1. I just missed them,” Davis said. via NBA.com, “Elbow jumpers. Goes to the pocket floater. Looks the same exact. Didn't make any shots I didn't shoot in Game 1. Just missed them. That's all. We'll be better. I'll better them.” shots.”
Then Davis was in Game 3, hitting 25 overs for bookmakers.
Whatever the explanation, bettors are predicting Davis' peaks and valleys will continue. If this happens, the Lakers are in trouble.