Futures: The market rally needs to do this; FedEx Raises Past Purchase Point

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Dow Jones futures were little changed early on Friday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. FedEx, ,FDX) reported earnings late on Thursday, indicating an FDX stock breakout.


The stock market had a strong session in an attempt to rally higher from the morning’s lows. Nasdaq led, large caps such as Apple stock, Microsoft ,msft, Advanced Micro Devices ,amd) And NVIDIA ,NVDA,

But Thursday’s market catalyst was news of a $30 billion deposit for the beleaguered California-based First Republic Bank ,FRC, JPMorgan Chase ,jpm, City Group ,C, Bank of America ,BAC) And Wells Fargo ,WFC) announced that they would deposit $5 billion in uninsured funds with First Republic. Goldman Sachs ,GS) And Morgan Stanley ,M / s) are contributing $2.5 billion each. Bank of New York Mellon ,bk, PNC Financial ,pnc, state Street ,STT, truest ,TFC) And US Bancorp ,USB) are creating uninsured deposits of $1 billion each.

FRC stock, up over 36% intraday and over 28%, closed up 10.3% at ₹34.38. Shares are off more than 70% this month. Several other regional banks also moved higher, including Western Alliance Bancorp ,wall) And Pacific Western Bank ,pacw), often referred to as the Packwest.

FRC stock fell 5% in early Friday trading after First Republic suspended its dividend, but edged lower overnight.

JPM stock closed Thursday up 1.9%, just above its 200-day moving average. Shares of Citi and BAC also closed up about 2% each.

The First Republic rescue report followed Wednesday night’s news credit Suisse ,C) will borrow up to $53.7 billion from the Swiss National Bank along with buying back debt. CS stock rose strongly in intraday but closed flat at Rs.2.16. The stock hit a record low of 1.75 on Wednesday.

Banks tapped $164.8 billion from central bank backstops in the week ended March 15, Federal Reserve data showed late Thursday. This included a record $152.85 billion from the discount window, up from the previous week’s $4.58 billion. That’s likely mostly from the FDIC-run successors to SVB Financial and Signature Bank. Banks also borrowed $11.9 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program. Under that new Fed facility, banks can take one-year loans under favorable terms in exchange for quality collateral.

Apple ,AAPL) and Microsoft stock posted buy signals on Thursday lantheus ,lnth, working day ,WDAY) And lenar ,lane,

Apple is a stock on SwingTrader. MSFT stock is on the IBD Long-Term Leaders List. LNTH are in stock and on weekdays IBD 50, Lantheus was Thursday’s IBD Stock of the Day.

Investors could choose to add a little risk on Thursday, but remain cautious. Major indices showed strength, but volumes fell versus Wednesday. So this is still a market rally attempt and not a confirmed trend.

dow jones futures today

Dow Jones futures lost 0.2% versus fair value. S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed about 0.1%.

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The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 3.55%, but the two-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.15%.

Crude oil futures rose nearly 2 per cent. Copper prices rose 2%.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

FedEx Income

FedEx earnings topped fiscal Q3 view but missed revenue. The shipping giant raised its full-year EPS guidance. FedEx stock rose 11% to 227 in early Friday trading, prompting a breakout. Shares rose 4.5% to 204.05 in Thursday’s regular session, above the 200-day and 50-day lines. FedEx stock is trading at a flat-basis buy point of 217.48, but investors could use a move above its March 9 intraday high of 213.31 as an initial entry.

United Parcel Service ,UPS) FedEx rose 3% in extended trading on earnings, suggesting a breakout or at least an early entry. Shares rose 1.9% to 187.90 on Thursday, rebounding from near the 50-day and 200-day lines and flirting with short-term resistance and a year-to-date trendline. UPS stock is on flat ground with a 193.81 buy point within one-year consolidation.

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stock market rally

The stock market rally had a strong day, rebounding near session’s highs on fears of a bank crisis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% in Thursday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index popped 1.8%, with First Republic and AMD among the top performers. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.4%.

US crude prices rose 1.1% to $68.35 a barrel after falling to a 2023 low on Wednesday. Copper prices rose by 0.75%.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points to 3.58%, rebounding from 3.37% intraday. The two-year yield rose 16 basis points to 4.13%.

Markets are now anticipating quarter-point Fed hikes in March and May, and more rate cuts thereafter. Needless to say, Fed rate estimates are in flux.

The European Central Bank went ahead with a half-point hike on Thursday.


Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (ffty) popped 2.7%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (boxing) climbed 2.1%. iShares Extended Tech- Sector ETF (IGV) rose 2.7% with MSFT a major component of the stock. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 4%.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 1% and the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (pave) 1.3%. US Global Jets ETF (jet) and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (xhb) both grew by 1.8%. Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) Advanced 1% and Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (xlv) 0.9%

Financial Select SPDR ETF (xlf) turned 1.9%. JPM stock is a major XLF holding, along with Citigroup stock and BofA. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (kre) FRC stock bounced 3.5%, along with Western Alliance, PacWest and several big regional names.

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Reflecting more speculative stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) up 3.1% and the ARK Genomics ETF (arkg) advanced 1.7%.

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Stock in Buy Sectors

AAPL’s stock rose 1.9% to 155.85 on Thursday, rising for the fourth straight day in above-average trading over its 21-day line. The iPhone giant has not moved beyond its 200-day and 50-day lines. Shares, which posted their best close in nearly six months, also swung to a trendline since early February. Apple stock has a flat-basis buy point of 1,547.48.

MSFT stock rose 4.05% to ₹276.20, gaining heavily for the fourth day in a row. Up 11% for the week, shares are near flat-basis buy points at 276.86. But Microsoft is also getting closer to moving past the 200-day and 50-day limits. The relative strength line is already at a 52-week high, which is a bullish sign. The RS line, the blue line in the provided chart, tracks the stock’s performance versus the S&P 500 Index.

With general market optimism and safe haven inflows among tech giants, Microsoft looks to benefit from its AI chatbots, which could offer a chance to gain market share in the Internet search sector.

LNTH stock jumped 7.6% to 78.83, breaking a buy zone. While 75.20 was still a buy point, the 77.04 cup-with-handle entry on the weekly chart looks more relevant.

WDAY stock rose 4% to 191.72, extending Monday’s surge from the 50-day line. The shares are still in range from pre-cup base with 184.60 buy point. Investors can use that or the bounce from the 50-day and 21-day lines. The Weekday stock is on track to hold a new flat base with a 193.74 buy point after Friday’s close.

LEN stock also rose 4% to 104.20. A rebound from near the 50-day line offered an early entry. The homebuilder has a flat-basis buy point of 109.38, according to MarketSmith analysis. On Wednesday, shares initially rose after strong earnings and guidance from Lennar, but reversed lower. Thursday’s move went above Wednesday’s intraday high. The RS line for LEN stock is already at a 52-week high.

Market Rally Analysis

The stock market’s rally effort enjoyed a broad-based, strong advance on Thursday, fueled by optimism that bank woes will be contained.

The Nasdaq Composite rebounded strongly from the convergence of all major averages, breaking a trendline from early February highs. The Nasdaq 100, which includes Apple stock and Microsoft, decisively broke its trend line.

The S&P 500 index moved back above its 200-day line. It is not far from the 50 day line. A break above this would mean that the S&P 500 would clear its own trend line. Of course, it won’t take long for the S&P to break below its 200-day low or test recent lows.

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The Dow Jones edged back toward its 200-day line, but the 50-day is a ways off. The Russell 2000 climbed, but there’s work to be done.

The Nasdaq’s price action was impressive, but volume was lighter than on Wednesday. Therefore Thursday did not qualify as a follow-through day. Investors can now watch the follow-through day on the Nasdaq or S&P 500. Friday will be a quadruple magic day, so volumes are likely to be high.

Major stocks once again remained in the lead. Many have expanded, such as Nvidia, AMD and Arista Networks ,a net, But many stocks gave buy signals or went back in position.

While Thursday’s headlines were positive, that could all change if the banking sector takes another tumble.

Meanwhile, big changes in Treasuries, Fed hike expectations and other markets will drive stocks back.

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What do we do now

An attempted stock market rally has yet to be confirmed, but the Nasdaq was bullish in large price moves and technical action. The action of major stocks was even higher.

Investors could add some risk on Thursday. But beware of getting bullish in this volatile, news-driven market. There is also nothing wrong with waiting for the FTD before coming back. Many of the top stocks are still in range or moving positions.

Remember, if you’re quick to jump stocks and make rally attempts, you’ll need to get out just as fast.

In any case, make sure you have your watchlist ready.

Read The Big Picture every day to keep up with market direction and the leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter @IBD_ECarson For stock market updates and much more.

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